Residential Solar Just Hit Its Lowest Point Since COVID. Here's What to Do

Hello Solar Squad,

Is your pipeline feeling slower than this time last year?

Or worse… are you running the same cash and loan solar ads you were running in 2024?

If you are, I need you to read this. Because the market has fundamentally shifted and most solar company owners haven't caught up yet.

Here's the reality of residential solar right now.

2024 saw a 30% market contraction. 2025 followed with another 2% decline. And 2026?

The lowest volume since COVID shut the country down in 2020.

This isn't a slow patch. This is a structural reset.

Why Is This Happening?

Well we all know this part on July 4, 2025, the federal government signed the One Big Beautiful Bill into law. That legislation ended the 30% residential solar tax credit for customer-owned systems.

Gone. Just like that. A credit that had been the backbone of residential solar economics for over a decade.

And the numbers are brutal. Nearly half of all residential solar installations in the first half of 2025 were customer-owned. That entire segment of the market has now lost its biggest selling point overnight.

The companies that built their business on that model? They're already feeling it.

Freedom, Purelight Power one of the larger national installers filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy at the end of 2025. TriSMART Solar in Texas shut down completely. These aren't small operations. This is the market telling you something important.

The Pain Points Killing Solar Companies Right Now

🚩 The Wrong Offer — Cash and loan companies are still running the same ads with no tax credit to back them up. Homeowners are being promised savings that no longer add up. Trust is collapsing.

🚩 The Race to the Bottom — Installers who don't adapt are slashing margins to compete. You can't cut your way to growth in a 20% down market. That's how you join the bankruptcy list.

🚩 The Knowledge Gap — Most homeowners don't know that PPA and lease options are still ITC-eligible. Nobody is explaining this to them. The companies that do will own the conversation.

Where The Market Is Actually Going

Here's what the doom and gloom headlines aren't telling you. The residential solar market isn't dying. It's dividing.

One side cash and loan, customer-owned installs is contracting hard. The other side third-party owned models like PPA and lease is structurally protected and set to grow.

The $0 down, instant savings offer still works. It's just only available through TPO now.

Driven by rising electricity bills and declining solar costs.

✅ TPO/PPA Is Still ITC-Eligible — While the cash/loan market lost its tax credit, PPA providers can still access it and pass the value directly to homeowners.

✅ Electricity Bills Keep Rising — The average US household electricity rate has increased roughly 8% per year since 2018. The pain that makes solar an easy sell isn't going away.

✅ Competitors Are Exiting — A 20% market contraction is clearing out the weak players. The companies that position correctly right now will inherit serious market share.

✅ 2027 Belongs to TPO — The recovery is already forecast. The question is whether you've built the right system to capitalise on it when it arrives.

The market has split. TPO companies that can explain their offer clearly will take the next three years. Cash and loan companies that don't adapt won't make it that far.

That's where we are.

Want to see how we're helping solar companies build a full PPA marketing system that works in this market?

Book a demo call.

 Want to see how we help our partners grow?

These systems see ROI in month 1, no long term contracts, no start up fees.

7 day set up time…

There is still time to have a lead gen machine before the summer rush comes.. if you act now.

Kind regards,